Variable home loan
6.54%middle lender today
If banks pass on every move and markets are right, it could be about 6.90% by Sep 2027 (today’s rate plus the cash rate’s change).
Rate outlook
The cash rate is 4.60%. Bond prices lean towards one or two more rises in the next year, to about 5.00% by Sep 2027.
Bond prices to 30 Sep 2026 (RBA, published 2 Oct) · Cash rate: RBA, 16 Oct · Long-term rates: 14 Oct
Cash rate by Sep 2027 · from bond prices
5.00%▲ +0.40 pts
One or two rises · typical miss ±0.59 pts
Market odds · the two nearest outcomes
about 50%One rise 4.85%
about 50%Two rises 5.10%
A year out, the result was one of these two about 1 time in 4 since 2017.
The next meetings are too close to read from bond prices. Meeting-by-meeting odds come from cash-rate futures: ASX RBA Rate Tracker ↗
Too far out for odds: bond prices point to one or two rises from today, give or take 0.67 pts.
Bond markets’ one-year view has missed by 0.59 percentage points on average since 2017. A year before, they pointed to about 3.35% for 30 Sep 2026; it was 4.60%.
Bond prices have barely moved since 30 Sep.
Months ahead of the curve’s day, 30 Sep 2026. RBA decision days: 3 Nov 2026, 8 Dec 2026, 9 Feb 2027, 23 Mar 2027, 4 May 2027, 22 Jun 2027, 10 Aug 2027, 28 Sep 2027, 2 Nov 2027, 14 Dec 2027.
What it could mean for you
Fix or float
6.74%2-year fixed
6.80%variable over 2 years, at the average bond prices imply
If banks pass on every move and markets are right, fixing costs about 0.05 pts a year less.
Savings
2.55%savings base rate today, no bonus
If banks pass on every move and markets are right, savings could pay about 2.95% by Sep 2027 (today’s rate plus the cash rate’s change).
A 1-year term deposit pays 5.30% today and keeps that rate for the year.
The middle lender’s advertised rate (the median), not the best, recorded 19 Oct 2026: owner-occupier home loans, principal and interest, $500,000 at 80% LVR; $50,000 deposits. General information, not advice.
Long-term rates
Government bond yields
14 Oct 2026, RBA F2. Banks lend at fixed rates for years at a time, so fixed home loan rates tend to rise and fall with these yields.
- 2 years
- 4.92%
- 3 years
- 4.91%
- 5 years
- 4.98%
- 10 years
- 5.31%
Fixed home loans above government rates
At 2 years, fixed home loans sit 1.78 pts above the government rate.
- 1 year1.71 pts6.64% − 4.93%
- 2 years1.78 pts6.74% − 4.96%
- 3 years1.80 pts6.77% − 4.97%
- 4 years1.89 pts6.89% − 5.00%
- 5 years1.84 pts6.90% − 5.06%
The middle lender’s fixed rate (19 Oct 2026) minus the RBA’s month-end government rate for the same term (30 Sep 2026), put the same way as a loan rate. It differs a little from the daily yields beside it, which are newer and quoted another way.
How this is worked outRBA tables · track record · limits
Sources. The cash rate target from RBA F1 (16 Oct 2026); government bond yields from RBA F2 (14 Oct 2026); the RBA’s month-end government curve, its zero-coupon and forward rates fitted to government bonds, from RBA F17 (30 Sep 2026, published 2 Oct 2026). The 2-year bond yield moved −0.02 pts from 30 Sep to 14 Oct.
The path. Only the curve’s rise or fall after its own day counts: it is added to the cash rate on that day, so the usual gap between government bonds and the cash rate is not read as a move. Moves, odds and bank figures count from today’s cash rate.
How sure it is. Every curve since 2017 was checked against what the cash rate then did (2,208 curve days for the one-year view, 3 Jan 2017 to 16 Oct 2025). On average the view missed by 0.22 percentage points (pts) at six months, 0.59 at one year and 1.47 at two years; assuming no change would have missed by 0.38, 0.74 and 1.46. So the view beat “no change” to a year, and at two years did no better. The band on the chart is the view’s average miss.
Odds from 6 to 12 months only. Where the curve starts is itself uncertain, at every distance: nudging its first point within its own error swings any split by about 30 points. Inside six months that leaves nothing to tell one meeting from the next; meeting-by-meeting odds come from cash-rate futures (ASX RBA Rate Tracker ↗), which RateSonar does not hold. From 6 to 12 months the page shows where bond prices sit between the two nearest quarter-point outcomes, rounded to the nearest 10%, beside how often such a split held since 2017: about 2 times in 3 at six months and 1 time in 4 at a year. They are the usual reading of bond prices, not a measured chance. Past a year the pair held less often still, so the page shows no split.
Beyond two years. Bond prices further out are long-term rates, not an expectation for the cash rate. The RBA has published its decision days to December 2027.
Bank rates. The cards assume banks pass on every cash-rate move in full, which they do not always do. RateSonar’s own record of bank rates starts in June 2026, so it cannot show how banks passed moves on before then. Each figure is the middle lender’s best advertised rate: 102 lenders for variable home loans, 74 for 2-year fixed, 66 for savings (the base rate, no bonus conditions) and 58 for 1-year term deposits (paid at maturity).
RateSonar records advertised rates and does not forecast. General information, not advice.
| Cash rate target | 4.60% · RBA F1 · 16 Oct 2026 |
|---|---|
| Bond prices, 6 months | About 4.90% by Mar 2027 · typical miss ±0.22 pts |
| Bond prices, 12 months | About 5.00% by Sep 2027 · typical miss ±0.59 pts |
| Bond prices, 24 months | About 4.90% by Sep 2028 · typical miss ±1.47 pts, no better than assuming no change (1.46) |
| Market odds, 12 months | One rise (4.85%) about 50% · Two rises (5.10%) about 50% · splits a year out matched the outcome about 1 time in 4 since 2017 |
| Government curve | 30 Sep 2026, published 2 Oct 2026 · RBA F17 |
| Government bond yields | 2 years 4.92%, 3 years 4.91%, 5 years 4.98%, 10 years 5.31% · 14 Oct 2026 · RBA F2 |
| Track record | 2,208 curve days, 3 Jan 2017 to 16 Oct 2025 |
| Bank rates | Middle lender, recorded 19 Oct 2026 |
| Assistant access | Connect an AI agent at https://api.ratesonar.com; the steps for each tool are at ratesonar.com/agents. No sign-up and no key. Series calls without a key return the last 31 days. |
Common questions
Will interest rates go up in Australia?
No one can say for sure. Bond prices lean towards one or two more rises in the next year, to about 5.00% by Sep 2027, from a cash rate of 4.60% (RBA curve of 30 Sep 2026). Since 2017, that one-year view has missed by 0.59 percentage points on average.
What does the market expect the RBA to do next?
The RBA’s next decision is on 3 Nov 2026. Bond prices cannot tell one meeting from the next, so this page shows no odds for the next six months; cash-rate futures do (the ASX RBA Rate Tracker). Six months out, bond prices point to about 4.90% by Mar 2027: about one rise from today.
Should I fix my home loan?
That depends on your own plans, and this is general information, not advice. For the middle lender, a 2-year fixed home loan is 6.74% and the variable rate is 6.54%. If banks pass on every move and markets are right, fixing costs about 0.05 pts a year less. Check fees and break costs with the lender.
Is this a forecast?
No. RateSonar records advertised rates and does not forecast. This page shows what bond markets price: the path for the cash rate that the RBA’s government bond curve implies, read as a change from today. Markets are often wrong; the band on the chart shows their average miss.
How is it worked out?
From three RBA tables: the cash rate target (F1), government bond yields (F2) and the RBA’s month-end government curve (F17, 30 Sep 2026). The curve’s rise or fall after today is added to today’s cash rate. Every curve since 2017 was checked against what the cash rate then did: on average it missed by 0.22 percentage points at six months, 0.59 at one year and 1.47 at two years. At two years that is no better than assuming no change (1.46).